Fitch predicts aviation ABS resilience in face of tariffs but downgrades 2025 outlook for the market
Fitch Ratings says it expects aircraft operating lease ABS asset performance to withstand growing pressures from tariffs, heightened policy uncertainty, and slower global GDP growth. It says the sector 'is broadly well-positioned to weather a more challenging environment given support for used aircraft values from continued under-supply and our expectation that tariffs on new aircraft will shift preferences toward used aircraft.' Additionally, although Fitch projects lower global GDP growth in 2025 relative to 2024, positive growth will still support overall demand for passenger air travel. However, it says some ABS pools are vulnerable to negative shocks and because of increased downside risks is lowering its outlook for the sector from 'neutral' to 'deteriorating'. LoginIf you are already a subscriber Login here. You can change your Login password by clicking the 'My Details' option in the dropdown menu (which appears when you are logged in) at any time to an easily remembered word or combination of your choice. You can change it whenever you wish by following the instructions in the dropdown. (If you have forgotten your password click here to retrieve your password.) Subscribe to (or Renew) Aviation FinanceAt an annual cost of just €220 (or USD/GBP/CNY equivalent), a subscriber gets: - A fortnightly E-zine distributed on pc/mobile/tablet platforms with unique commentary and analysis by the global industry thought leaders on the most important issues affecting the financing of commercial aircraft and airlines - 24/7 access to aviationfinance.aero with over 1,200 archived articles written since 2011 providing an encyclopedic insight to the aircraft finance and leasing sector; access to the Aviation Finance online reference library on aircraft economics, and aircraft financing, highlighting and identifying key findings from our original research on aircraft economics and finance as they are published; - AviationFinance.aero is a subscription-only analysis of aircraft financing and provides investors and executives in the OEM, airline, investment, banking, leasing, airport and aviation services industries with unique insights into opportunities in the global aviation complex. Your one year subscription (25 issues) will include full access to all articles and information services on the website and the publication circulated by email to subscribers every second Thursday. Enter your email address in the box and the subsequent steps will enable you to subscribe or renew your subscription securely without delay, providing you with immediate access to Aviation Finance and aviationfinance.aero. Low Risk : Our low risk subscription Guarantee enables you to cancel at any time during your annual subscription year and reclaim the unexpired portion of your subscription. Vol. 15 Issue 12 of Aviation Finance |