Aviation Finance

Aviation Finance Vol. 15 No 01, January 9th 2025. ISSN 2009-7859

Aviation Complex Perspectives

Seven forecasts - for 2025 and beyond

The aviation industry enters 2025 with growing pains. Those pains are being imposed by supply side factors that have elevated fares and leasing costs while crimping the industry’s traffic volume plans. This article explores the reasons behind this tension between demand and supply.
To understand the dynamics underlying the aircraft leasing and airline sectors during 2024 and 2025 it is best to start by considering the production profile of commercial aircraft. Significant disruption of production rates at Airbus and Boeing, coupled with the ongoing challenges posed by new technology engines, helps explain how aircraft lessors and airlines are performing operationally and financially.


Leasing Business

BBAM in 36 aircraft deal with Southwest Airlines

Babcock & Brown Aircraft Management (BBAM) has agreed a 36 aircraft sale leaseback transaction with US low cost carrier Southwest. The deal is part of the airlines' strategy to monetise its all-Boeing 737 fleet to help finance its fleet modernisation plans as it aims to operate an all Boeing 737 MAX fleet by 2031.


Leasing Business

Operational and cost milestones central to CDB Aviation's robust 2024

CDB Aviation's chief executive officer Jie Chen said the lessor achieved significant milestones in operational efficiency and cost management as it finished 2024 with 'strong momentum' as the lessor aims to focus on further internationalising its platform and deepening its customer relationships.


Developments

Lesha Bank to make aviation 'a key pillar' of it business; Avolon's 2024 highlights

Qatar's Lesha Bank signals aviation to become 'a key pillar' in business with deal for five Boeing widebodies; Castlelake deal Avolon's 2024 highlight in a strong year; Air Lease made $540 million of aircraft sales in Q4 2024; ALM adds first Airbus A220 to its portfolio; SMBC Aviation Capital agrees lease of five Aribus A321neos to Turkish Airlines; Chorus Aviation Repays Series A Debentures and Redeems Series 1 Preferred Shares; High Ridge Aviation adds 5 A320neos to its owned portfolio; Luxair orders two Embraer E Jets; Airbus books A220 and A350F orders; Mesa sells E-Jets to United to pay down debt.

 
In this issue

In this issue

We begin our 2025 volume of Aviation Finance with an overall benign set of forecasts for 2025 covering all parts of what we term 'the aviation complex' incorporating airline businesses, leasing, financing, and the infrastructure that supports global commercial aviation, authored by our long time contributor Joe Gill.
In it he presents a holistic view of the global industry, linking the supply and demand economics of an industry that has continued to experience supply chain restrictions while experiencing a demand surge that has now taken passenger numbers above pre pandemic levels.


Leasing Business

DAE fleet will grow to 750 aircraft with Nordic Aviation Capital acquisition

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) has reached agreement to acquire rival lessor Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC) in a move that will add to the scale and diversity of DAE’s portfolio. NAC’s fleet comprised of 252 owned and committed assets on lease to 60 airlines across 40 countries and agreement comes a little over two and a half years since NAC successfully emerged from a major financial restructuring.


Leasing Business

AerCap signed 496 lease agreements across 2024, kicks off 2025 with $1.5 billion notes issuance

AerCap, the world's largest aircraft lessor, has released some of its key operational metrics for Q4 2024, as well as for the full year with the lessor revealing it leased, purchased and sold 812 assets in 2024. This includes the purchase of 150 assets and the sale of 166 assets while it also signed financing transaction for approximately $17.5 billion for the year. The lessor has also announced the pricing on its first notes issuance for 2025, a $1.5 billion transaction.


Aircraft Manufacturing

Commercial aircraft deliveries down sharply in 2024 but Boeing can increase its deliveries by 45% in 2025

A torrid year for Boeing ended on a good note with the OEM announcing a major order win just before Christmas. However, the latest delivery estimates for 2024 (ahead of imminent full year delivery announcements) show the impact of Boeing's quality issues and prolonged strike action by its workers has had on its business with Airbus dominating deliveries - latest estimates from Flightplan point to about 755 commercial airplane deliveries by Airbus (2023: 749) vs 340 commercial airplane deliveries by Boeing (2023: 528), while some other preliminary estimates point to Airbus deliveries of 766 aircraft.