July 3rd: We look at forecasting, and the role of black swans, deregulation's impact on aviation market cycles and trends, and provide a picture of aviation and lessor development in China. This issue features too a view from Europe, amongst legacy carriers notably, and on the eve of July 4th, a positive assessment of the restructuring of the US airline industry as a successful exercise in bringing about balance. Economic forecasting is an art at best, subject to the limitations of human intelligence, and even black swans, a creature that has enjoyed renewed attention in the past few years...

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