| Dubai airshow notches orders of over $60bn, close to previous record of 2007 November 17th: The Dubai airshow closed today with orders of $63 bn, including maintenance services, training orders and aircraft orders, bringing the tally for the show close to its record year in 2007. This was three times up on the last show in 2009. Why leasing is more profitable, and less risky One of America's leading aviation and aircraft leasing analysts, Gary Liebowitz, of Wells Fargo Securities cites a chart published in the first issue of this publication in his latest (October 12th) regular commentary on the industry Leibo's Leasing Letter. The chart, supplied by Avolon's Dick Forsberg, shows that, as a group, aircraft lessors remained solidly profitable through cyclical economic downturns – 'unlike their global airline customers that have a 20-year cumulative net margin of approximately zero'. It should be noted though that the 'Airline Net Income Margin' line (see top line in the table) aggregates the performance of LCCs and legacy airlines. Also there is a feeling amongst some analysts that backward - looking profits in leasing may not be repeated in the future, as future residual value performance may not be as good as in the past. Aviation Finance Analysis: Airbus' GMF and the growth potential of commercial aviation Airbus published it's latest annual Global Market Forecast (GMF) on September 19th. We look at the drivers that will deliver a 100%+ increase in the number of aircraft in service over the next twenty years Leasing can provide an attractive investment opportunity for long-term equity investors: Forsberg. The aviation leasing sector can provide an attractive investment opportunity for long-term equity investors looking to achieve steady risk-adjusted equity returns while participating in the growing global aviation business writes Avolon's DICK FORSBERG. |
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Landing gear centre to service Airbus A320 series and Boeing 737 series with novel business model opened November 3rd: The Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny opened a new 40,000 sq foot Landing Gear Centre at Dublin Aerospace, the company backed by Airbus and Air Asia's Tony Fernandez, doubling capacity, and providing coverage for the overhaul of the landing gears for Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s. Lessors to the fore as aircraft orders and deliveries remain firm Data from both Airbus and Boeing regarding their 2011 order and delivery programmes continue to show robust activity levels among the leading global OEMs. Boeing has chalked up 426 net new orders this year (adjusting for 105 cancellations) while Airbus has sold a net 1038 units by the end of September. Lessors remain key parts of the order books for both manufacturers with ALC, GECAS and ILFC accounting for 18% of Boeing’s bookings in 2011 while GECAS, ILFC and ICBC make up 20% of Airbus’ gross orders. Equity value destruction creates a “major hurdle” for airlines Aviation Finance's Gill tells World Low Cost Airlines Congress in London 'Airlines have a poor record in creating shareholder value' according to Aviation Finance's JOE GILL in a speech at the World Low Cost Airlines Congress in London on September 21st. In a review of stock market performance over the past fifteen years Gill argues that global airlines have consistently generated returns on invested capital that were below those of their cost of capital. This value destruction creates a “major hurdle” for airlines seeking equity investors, he said. Tony Ryan, the founder of Ryanair, GPA, and Ireland's aviation finance industry, writing in July 1987, in the second edition of Finance Magazine, about a single European aviation market |